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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 3 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(:34) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to IND 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model