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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP