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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.78 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model