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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 24 for 15 yards (50-J.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model