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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to CIN 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on PIT-57-K.Canaday, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model