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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP