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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 25 for 7 yards (45-M.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model