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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 4-J.Berry punts 69 yards to CIN 12, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 31 for 19 yards (89-V.McDonald). PENALTY on CIN-29-T.McRae, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 18. {Erickson credited with 6 return yards due to the penalty}

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.53 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 38, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP