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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.63 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP