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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PHI 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter to PHI 20 for 2 yards (80-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model