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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to NYG 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 10 for -8 yards (83-J.Perkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.48 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model