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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to NYG 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 37 for 9 yards (88-D.Goedert).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model