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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to NYG 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-O.Beckham MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 33. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 32 for -1 yards (30-C.Clement; 88-D.Goedert).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.02 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP