4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 61

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter to PHI 14 for 3 yards (30-A.Hamilton, 55-R.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.86 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model