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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 10

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(:07) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 10, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model