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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 53

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to LA 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP