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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 6

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP