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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 3-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model