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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 3-C.Santos 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP