Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Denver Broncos 3

(12:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DEN 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model