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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to DEN 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.76 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model