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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 3 at the 39
Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13
What Actually Happened
(:46) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at 50 for -11 yards (20-L.Joyner).
The Three Options
GO
+0.89 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.25 EP
- 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.36 EP
KICK
+0.40 EP
- 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
