4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 44

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 3-C.Wadman punts 30 yards to LA 14, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.51 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model