Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(13:39) 3-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to LA 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Natson to LA 29 for 3 yards (47-J.Jewell; 81-T.Patrick).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model