Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 10
Los Angeles Rams 6 – Denver Broncos 3
What Actually Happened
(11:02) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.28 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.14 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 10, worth -0.57 EP
KICK
+1.28 EP
- 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT
-0.68 EP
- Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
