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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.41 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model