Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 33 – New England Patriots 37

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NE 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-19-M.Kemp. NE 11-Edelman signaled for fair catch. Flag picked up - NE 35-Crossen pushed KC-35-Ward into NE 11-Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model