4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 40

New England Patriots 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Gordon.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.93 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model