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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model