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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 7

Miami Dolphins 10 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP