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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 88

Chicago Bears 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to MIA 46, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.34 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 88, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -3.10 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 46, worth -3.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model