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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to CHI 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model