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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to CHI 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 5 yards (34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.37 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model