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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 54

Chicago Bears 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(8:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to MIA 17, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model