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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to BAL 42, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 27-C.Jones to BAL 48 for 6 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.56 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 87, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model