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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 94

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to 50, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 27-C.Jones to TEN 36 for 14 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -3.55 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 94, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 52, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model