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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-C.Batson to TEN 11 for no gain (50-A.McClellan).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model