Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 21

(12:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to BAL 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.09 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model