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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to TEN 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model