4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to BAL 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.14 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model