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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to BAL 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 27-C.Jones to BAL 44 for 26 yards (32-D.Fluellen).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.59 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -2.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model