Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(4:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to BAL 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 27-C.Jones to BAL 31 for 4 yards (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on BAL-99-M.Judon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.25 EP
77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model