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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 13 – New Orleans Saints 43

What Actually Happened

(12:07) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 80-J.Crowder to NO 43 for 24 yards (26-P.Williams). Pass 20, YAC 4

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model