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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 22

Washington Commanders 13 – New Orleans Saints 40

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith sacked at NO 29 for -7 yards (92-M.Davenport). FUMBLES (92-M.Davenport), RECOVERED by NO-53-A.Klein at NO 35. 53-A.Klein to WAS 48 for 17 yards (76-M.Moses).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP