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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 31

Washington Commanders 13 – New Orleans Saints 33

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 13-M.Harris INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Hardee at NO 19. 34-J.Hardee to WAS 4 for 77 yards (86-J.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model