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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 53

Washington Commanders 6 – New Orleans Saints 26

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to NO 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model