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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 73

Washington Commanders 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to NO 36, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 41-A.Kamara to NO 36 for no gain (48-K.Ladler; 52-R.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model