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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 3 at the 39
New York Giants 3 – Carolina Panthers 7
What Actually Happened
(:50) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham.
The Three Options
GO
+0.34 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
- 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.66 EP
KICK
-0.75 EP
- 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
- 43% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.39 EP
PUNT
-0.81 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
