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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 94

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to NYG 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham to CAR 39 for 15 yards (44-J.Jansen).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 94, worth -5.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model