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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 60

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to CAR 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 6 for -3 yards (80-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model